题目：Not Coming Home: Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainty in American Supply Chain Networks

●主讲人：吴靖

●时间：2020年11月18日（周三）12:00-13:30

●地点：四川大学望江校区经济学院四楼咖啡厅

●摘要：

Abstract

We study the impact of trade and economic policy uncertainty on supply chain networks of publicly-listed American firms. Beyond the actual trade and other economic policy, the uncertainty around these policies contributes to supply chain risk. Whether such policy uncertainty will bring production back to the U.S. or only a redistribution of the global supply chains is theoretically ambiguous and warrants an empirical analysis. Using firm-level global supply chain data and policy uncertainty indexes, we investigate the question using reduced-form empirical specification with high dimensional fixed effects. Rather than inducing production to come “home,” on average higher U.S. trade policy uncertainty predicts an increase in foreign and decrease in domestic supplier relationships, driven by firms with majority foreign customers. In contrast, those with mostly domestic customers decrease foreign supplier relationships. American firms also appear to substitute among foreign countries in response to foreign-country-specific economic policy uncertainty – shifting suppliers from countries with higher uncertainty to ones with lower uncertainty. Firms with less production flexibility and more bargaining power respond more to all measures of economic policy uncertainty. Our results suggest firms take precautionary action consistent with a trade-off between lowering production cost versus avoiding risk related to trade and economic policy uncertainty.

●个人简介：

吴靖：吴靖教授就职于香港中文大学中大商学院决策科学与管理经济系，也是香港-深圳联合金融研究中心的执行委员，拥有芝加哥大学布斯商学院的博士学位和MBA学位及清华大学电子工程学士学位。主要研究领域是运营与财务，全球供应链，经济网络和大数据应用，研究论文发表在Management Science、M&SOM等顶级期刊。同时为香港一家金融科技公司和内地的资产管理公司提供咨询服务，回国前曾在纽约德意志银行担任量化策略师。