主讲人简介：

陈帅，浙江大学长聘副教授、研究员、博士生导师。2014年博士毕业于北京大学，师从徐晋涛教授；2015-2017年间在北京大学光华管理学院从事博士后研究，合作导师是陈玉宇教授和蔡洪滨教授。2017年入职浙江大学，现任教于浙江大学中国农村发展研究院（CARD）、浙江大学公共管理学院。讲授中级计量经济学、资源与环境经济学和农业经济学研究方法导论等课程。围绕气候变化与中国农业、空气污染的社会经济影响等议题开展研究。在Journal of Development Economics（JDE）、Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics（JAERE）、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management（JEEM）和Journal of Economic Geography（JEG）等知名期刊发表学术论文；主持包括国家自科基金、浙江省杰出青年科学基金在内的多个科研项目。

讲座内容简介：

Abstract

Theoretical models predict that cash transfer programs will disincentive labor supply. However, empirical evidence is mixed. In this study, we re-examine this contradiction by evaluating one of the largest cash transfer programs in the world–China’s Dibao program. Our theoretical model predicts that while cash transfer programs will reduce labor supply, most of their effects are driven by beneficiaries with low earnings potential. To test this hypothesis, we exploit the time- and space-varying Dibao income eligibility criteria to implement a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. We find that at the baseline, Dibao beneficiaries are 26.5% less likely to be employed. Using wage regressions to impute earnings potential, we further find that labor disincentives are mostly limited to those with low earnings potential whereas there are no effects for beneficiaries with high earnings potential. These results are also replicated within households as there is evidence of intra-household labor reallocation along the lines of earnings potential.

摘要

理论模型预测，现金转移计划将抑制劳动力供应。然而，经验证据好坏参半。在本研究中，我们通过评估世界上最大的现金转移项目之一——中国的低保政策，重新审视了这一矛盾。我们的理论模型预测，虽然现金转移计划将减少劳动力供应，但其大部分影响是由低收入潜力的受益人驱动的。为了验证这一假设，我们利用时间和空间变化的低保收入资格标准来实现模糊回归间断设计。我们发现，在基线水平上，低保受益人就业的可能性降低了26.5%。使用工资回归来估算收入潜力，我们进一步发现，劳动力抑制因素主要局限于收入潜力低的人，而对收入潜力高的受益人没有影响。这些结果也在家庭内部的结果也一致，证据表明，家庭内部劳动力沿着收入潜力进行了重新分配。